ACT: Chinese Government Policy Impacts Heavy Duty Truck Forecast

China 2016 and 2017 government policy changes have brought a one-time increase in heavy duty and medium duty commercial vehicle populations, according to the most recent China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, jointly published quarterly by ACT Research and China’s State Information Center (SIC).

The Outlook includes an overview of the China economy and a review and forecast of China’s heavy and medium-duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China.

The largest impact of these changes is the dramatic shift from heavy-duty truck to heavy-duty tractors as the power unit of choice for logistics. As the market absorbs these extra vehicles, it also stabilizes future demand as fleets and logistic companies will better balance freight volume with available capacity.

“ACT’s 2018 and beyond forecast reflect negative volume growth based on better logistics, modal shifts and the macro-economic trends caused by the shift from export demand to domestic consumption,” said Robert Perkins, senior global business consultant at ACT Research. “In the short-term, heavy trucks and tractors, as well as medium-duty trucks are expected to see year-over-year growth continue in Q2.”

SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.

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