ACT Research: COVID-19 Only One Risk to CV Forecasts

According to ACT Research’s recently released Transportation Digest, COVID-19 is just one of several factors that could impact commercial vehicle forecasts now and in the foreseeable future.

“The general trend of the COVID contagion curve through July was rising, but in early August newly reported cases were dropping, according to Johns Hopkins,” Steve Tam, ACT’s vice president, said. “In general, we are seeing favorable COVID trends in international economies, as well. That said, until we have a permanent cure for, or way to control, the coronavirus outbreak, that will remain the biggest risk to the commercial vehicle forecast in the short- and long-term.

“However, we don’t wish to ignore the other risks in the business environment that are easy to overlook because of the prominence of COVID. One obvious threat is the increasingly tense bilateral relationship of the US and China, and another is the outcome of November’s election.”

On the upside, Tam said, “We’re seeing promising levels of activity in key goods-producing and goods-distribution industries that drive motor freight and logistics, such as manufacturing, construction, and wholesale/retail trade, with e-commerce carrying the load in distribution.”

In recognition of the virus’ impact, ACT Research has created an easily accessible COVID-19 MARKET WATCH webpage to track noteworthy high frequency macroeconomic and transportation-specific market indicators.

The report, which combines proprietary ACT data and analysis from a wide variety of sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report is designed as a quick look at transportation insights for use by fleet and trucking executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the US trailer market, used truck sales information, and an overview of the US macroeconomy.

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