ACT Research: CV Forecasts Upgraded for 2020



According to ACT Research’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, forecasts for 2020 were marked up across the board in August. The report cites the uptick as a result of a robust “perfect storm” of positives in late spring and summer, many set in motion by the federal government’s and the Federal Reserve’s massive stimulus responses, as well as the trucking industry’s jettisoning of drivers in April.

Speaking about the U.S. transportation industry specifically, Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst, said, “On top of the continued steady roll out of good economic numbers, the sustained rally in spot rates was a key factor in this month’s forecast mark-up. That said, parked capacity is likely to weigh on the market as those units are redeployed throughout 2021.”

Regarding NA commercial vehicle demand, Vieth said, “Another factor in the 2020 forecast mark-up is not just the revival in order strength, but the very front-end loaded nature of June’s orders and very strong near-term backlog filling. Even in the face of significant parked capacity, a case can be made for a steady, if modest, Class 8 market rebound from here.” 

Vieth added that based on continued increases in build in the face of already high inventories, “Classes 5-7 OEMs appear to be betting on business and consumers’ resilience.”

The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next one to five years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides an overview of the North American markets and takes a dive into current market activity to highlight orders, production and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors and trailers, the macroeconomies of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.

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