Recent data show declining equipment and load posts, in a sign of ongoing private fleet insourcing, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report by ACT Research.

“Even with more private fleet capacity in the spot market than ever before, overall spot capacity continues to be slowly whittled away by low rates. Freight demand continues to grow broadly, through private fleets are handling the growth and insourcing. While general merchandise retail trends are positive enough to suggest a decent peak season for freight volumes overall, some sectors are struggling, so spot conditions are unlikely to improve much,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “For freight markets, a key near-term implication of elevated election uncertainty is likely to be lower equipment demand. Regardless of the outcome, the next few months are set to be contentious, and decision-makers planning next year’s fleets face immense uncertainty.”

Our DAT aggregate spot rate, net fuel, is at $1.74 in September (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from August and up marginally from $1.68 in Q4’23, and the seasonally adjusted load/truck ratio is currently 5.2:1.

The DAT load/truck ratio isn’t exactly a scale of 1 to 10. It can go way past 11. It reached the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018 and the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. The current 5.2 seasonally adjusted level suggests near-term spot rates will remain in neutral, even amid the likely brief port disruptions in early October.

“Freight markets face more of the same in the near term, but the setup is changing into 2025,” Denoyer said.