According to ACT Research’s Transportation Digest, supply will be the determining factor of this year’s heavy-duty vehicle market, not demand, which remains hot.

“All the indicators we use to track the heavy-duty truck market point to extraordinarily strong demand conditions,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “So much so that sales volumes this year will be determined on the supply side, by the ability of the manufacturers to keep up with customer demand for product. Barring an adverse surprise on COVID or some other front, a possibility that can’t be dismissed, even at this early stage of the year, significant growth from last year is assured.”

Regarding the year-long, to date, COVD-19 impact on the trucking industry, Vieth said, “The mad scramble for capacity by fleets and even vocational operators is multi-dimensional — for trucks, for drivers, even for fuel — and has its origin in the COVID shock of 2020. But ironically, the robust V-shaped recovery in goods spurred by the pandemic was the trigger for the capacity crunch. Certain aspects of this business cycle recovery have been unique, with significant impacts on transportation and heavy-duty truck demand. The singular nature of COVID means this cycle does not fit neatly into historical patterns.”