“The study will provide the most complete, independent and systematic view of the benefits, costs, enablers and barriers for all stakeholders and also allow us to apply some of those lessons for our customers in non-road machinery markets,” Alex Woodrow, managing director for KGP, said.
For the past eight months, ACT Research has performed a multi-client study in conjunction with more than 30 participants to forecast commercial vehicle build and unit sales in North America over a 20-year horizon. The results, published in a report titled Charging Forward: 2020-2040 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, is the combination of ACT Research’s analysis and understanding of the commercial vehicle markets and input from OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, new entrant manufacturers, fleets and capital investment firms, providing an overview of battery electric and fuel cell technology and covering more than 30 distinct application types. The result was a more than 275-page document and a third-generation total cost of ownership (TCO) model.
“Building from ACT’s recently completed 30+ multi-client study of the North American CEV market provides a solid framework and basis for deploying this work into a fully global study,” Ann Rundle, vice president of electrification and autonomy at ACT Research, said. “We know and understand the products and players in the commercial vehicle industry and are uniquely qualified to provide a comprehensive study on the future of zero emissions adoption into commercial vehicles.”
Now, in partnership with KGP, a provider of commercial vehicle powertrain forecasts and analysis, ACT Research is launching a collaborative effort to develop a global BEV and FCEV commercial vehicle forecast and analysis. Working in a similar, multi-client approach, KGP and ACT will engage global commercial vehicle manufacturers to provide insights to share their findings and advance the current foundation established in ACT Research’s recently completed North American study.
“The study’s methodology — engaging with multi-client participants, detailed TCO analysis of 20+ vehicle applications, rigorous research and analysis — provides a thorough and credible forecast,” Rundle said. “The combined expertise of ACT and KGP ensures access to data, facts and industry sources that is unparalleled and unique in the commercial vehicle market.”
The global study will include a review of battery technology, fuel cell technology and propulsion systems technology, as well as regional electric and hydrogen infrastructure and government regulations and subsidies.
“KGP has informally worked with ACT since our global commercial vehicle powertrain forecast was launched more than 15 years ago,” Woodrow said. “Formalizing the partnership to globalize this study on full electrification deepens the expertise available to our joint customer base. The shift to alternative fuels and to decarbonize heavy transport has accelerated during the past two years. Climate change has become much more of a priority for all stakeholders — the OEM and its supporting industry, fleet owners and operators, government and, importantly, finance and investors. Critically also, the pace of technology development has changed opinions on what can and can’t be electrified over that period.”
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