ACT Research Shifts Forecasts Lower, Anticipates Inbound Recession

In the latest release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported shifts — both higher and lower adjustments, but in aggregate, lower still — in forecasts last month to incorporate an inbound recession.

“We have tweaked our economic forecasts slightly lower. 2023 GDP remains unchanged at 0.0%, but our expectations for 2022 slip 20 bps to 1.4%. Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said.There are some moving pieces here, with a higher 2022 forecast but lower 2023. The higher 2022 forecast largely reflects better-than-expected June build and slightly higher near-term expectations as supply-chain constraints moderate and the OEMs work to sate pent-up demand. To that general commentary, the combination of falling freight rates, higher operating costs, rising interest rates and falling used equipment valuations are likely to be adding turbulence to the market as we move into 2023. While we are marking our forecast down, 2023 is still projected to be a very good year, just not as good as we were expecting, as tailwinds are blowing less hard amid rising headwinds.”

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