ACT Research revealed plans for a new multi-client study focusing on electrification of the commercial vehicle industry to be released in 2021.

“Driven by a combination of advances in battery technology, environmental considerations and government policy, and long-term potential for significant operational cost savings, electric-based propulsion systems for commercial vehicles are likely to capture a substantial share of the commercial vehicle market over the next two decades. Clearly this poses a threat to internal combustion engines, as electric power displaces today’s dominant power source. Such a change would constitute the most revolutionary development for the motor vehicle industry in the last 100 years.” Jim Meil, principal and industry analyst at ACT, said. “Given the progress of the technology, product, and evolution of the competitive arena since the publication of ACT’s first CEV report two years ago, the time has come to revisit the 2018 study. Our intent is to expand the scope of the study to new electric power sources, extend the time horizon to 2040, and to refresh the assumptions and the resulting market outlook.

“We are gratified by the enthusiastic reception our study has received thus far. Already on board for the 2021 work are traditional ACT Research customers, plus new names for us that we are excited to be working with for the first time. The market response has surprised and delighted us so far, and we look forward to adding more customers in the days ahead.”

The scope of the study will include unit sales for the U.S. and Canada, annually from 2020 to 2030, with single-year outlooks for 2035 and 2040. Class 8 truck and Classes 4-7 truck and bus segments will be considered, with additional segmentation encompassing step vans, conventional and low cab forward trucks, RV, school bus, yard spotter, transit bus categories, as well as the Class 8 straight, day cab and sleeper subcategories. The research will compare purchase and operational costs for diesel, battery, fuel cell and hybrid powertrains in a comparative total cost of ownership (TCO) framework. It also will take into account concerns, such as infrastructure requirements and costs, regulation and issues such as maintenance, range, durability, and vehicle and component replacement.

“ACT Research is uniquely positioned to forecast these market developments. Starting as early as 2011 with our first report on natural gas-powered commercial vehicles, we have been at the forefront in analyzing and forecasting the growth of alternative fuels and power in the North American market.” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT, said. “This leadership position was affirmed in 2018 with the release of our first commercial electric vehicle report, ‘Commercial Vehicle Electrification: To Charge or Not to Charge,’ a comprehensive review and forecast of sales and share trends for battery electric power within the broader commercial vehicle universe.”