ACT: Spot Rate Spike Arrives, Contract Rate Increases Following Soon

ACT Research released the August installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report. This monthly 56-page report provides three-year forecasts for volumes and contract rates for the truckload, less-than-truckload and intermodal sectors of the transportation industry.

For the truckload spot market, the report forecasts rates for the next 12 to 15 months, and this month introduced a forecast for Q3/21.

“A freight recovery amidst a driver shortage has driven an acutely tight truckload market, with spot rate measures up 30% y/y. Looking forward, we now see a new phase of the pandemic, with tightness easing as stimulus benefits fade. The spike in used truck sales shows that process underway,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst for ACT Research, said. “Our Spot Leading Indicator, a survey-based measure of the direction of rates, is now consistent with 30% y/y increases in spot rates, but with latent equipment capacity and additional stimulus looking unlikely, a peak seems near. While the path ahead includes puts and takes, we see medium-term freight rate trends moving higher on tighter supply and recovering demand.”

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