ACT: Supply & Demand-Side Triggers Impacting Heavy CV Markets

ACT Research’s Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest queries whether the current record-setting Class 8 cycle will close differently than previous peak periods.

The report provides monthly analysis on transportation trends, equipment markets, and the economy.

“ACT’s analysis of Class 8 cycles shows that peak build typically lasts between 13 and 15 months. The lone exception being the EPA’07-prebuy driven 2005-2006 cycle, which ran a remarkable 27 months at peak build rates,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Given the exogenous benefits accrued from miles-per-gallon and safety technologies, we have to consider if the conditions are in place for this cycle to run farther than history would suggest.”

Vieth added, “Given slower freight growth, an easing of driver supply constraints, the resumption of the long-run freight productivity trend, and strong Class 8 tractor fleet growth, which are increasingly pressuring rates and by extension trucker profits, our forecast assumes a moderating of the Class 8 cycle into the end of 2019.”

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