Avolon, an international aircraft leasing company, issued its 2021 outlook paper, reviewing the key trends in the aviation industry for airlines, manufacturers and lessors. The report also identified themes that are likely to shape the year ahead and set out six forecasts for 2021.
“At the start of last year, no one could have foreseen the devastating impact that the COVID-19 pandemic was about to have across the world. 2020 became the most challenging year the commercial aviation industry has ever faced. In response, governments and aircraft lessors stepped up to support airlines,” Jim Morrison, head of portfolio management at Avolon and author of the 2021 outlook paper, said. “Commercial aviation has demonstrated its resilience repeatedly. It has managed through wars, terrorism, pandemics, oil spikes and financial crises. Our fearless forecasts for 2021 published today are premised on this optimism but anchored by the realism that challenging months are ahead.
“The initial economic recovery will be shaped by the authorization and distribution of multiple vaccines, leading to the gradual re-opening of societies, economies and borders. This will drive a rebound in air traffic, with the recovery likely to be gradual and uneven. While there will be a renewed focus on domestic travel creating opportunities for airlines in the short term, many airlines will undoubtedly continue to struggle to survive, with IATA forecasting a US$39 billion net loss for the industry in the year ahead. However, the importance of air travel to society and the global economy over the long term remains undiminished. Vaccines offer the spark that will reignite the recovery of the aviation industry. 2021 will be challenging, but we are now looking to recovery.”
Avolon’s Six Forecasts for 2021
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