Beige Book: Economic Activity Increases in All 12 Districts



According to the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book release, economic activity increased in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts between mid-February and the end of March, with the pace of expansion equally split between modest and moderate.

In addition, the pickup was evident to varying degrees across economic sectors. Manufacturing continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace, although growth in freight shipments slowed slightly. Consumer spending varied as reports of stronger light vehicle sales were accompanied by somewhat softer readings in non-auto retail spending. Tourism and travel activity generally picked up. On balance, reports suggested that residential construction growth accelerated somewhat even as growth in home sales slowed, in part due to a lack of inventory.

Nonresidential construction remained strong, but became more mixed in some regions. Leasing activity generally improved at a more modest pace. More than half of the reports suggested that loan volumes increased, while only one said they were down modestly. Non-financial services generally continued to expand steadily. Energy-related businesses noted improved conditions while agricultural conditions varied.

Employment expanded across the nation and increases ranged from modest to moderate during this period. Labor markets remained tight, and employers in most districts had more difficulty filling low-skilled positions, although labor demand was stronger for higher skilled workers. Modest wage increases broadened, and reports noted bigger increases for workers with skills that are in short supply. A larger number of firms mentioned higher turnover rates and more difficulty retaining workers. A couple of Districts reported that worker shortages and increased labor costs were restraining growth in some sectors, including manufacturing, transportation, and construction. Businesses generally expected labor demand to increase moderately in the next six months, and looked for modest wage growth.

On balance, prices rose modestly since the previous report. Input prices generally increased at a modest rate and outpaced gains in selling prices, which rose only slightly. Price increases were noted for some building materials, such as lumber and concrete, whereas metal prices remained fairly stable. Retail prices rose moderately, on the whole. Energy prices were flat to slightly lower. Reports on agriculture prices varied, with increases in cotton, peanuts, chickens and hogs, and declines for corn and wheat. Home prices generally moved slightly higher. Businesses mostly expected mild to moderate price growth to persist in the next several months.


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