According to the recent release of ACT Research’s China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, Chinese commercial vehicle demand presented a mixed bag of results into the end of 2022, with demand for heavy trucks, medium trucks and tractors started the process of reversing its downward trajectory as the Chinese economy reopened.

Medium truck and heavy tractor volumes remained under pressure in the year’s final quarter, but saw improvement relative to year-ago levels. While still down compared to last year, heavy truck volumes posted a strong gain in Q4 quarter to quarter, boosting overall HD vehicle output. With declines narrowing and easy comps inbound, 2022 is expected to be the nadir of this demand cycle. MD and HD vehicle output is projected to rise 25% in 2023 from 2022 levels.

Economic growth in Q4/22 was mixed as an explosion of COVID cases negatively impacted activity due to a surge of infections after the pandemic control restrictions were lifted. Additionally, falling external demand dampened exports amid slower global growth. Infrastructure investment was strong but insufficient to drive an uptick in volume against other headwinds.

The China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC), includes a review and forecast of China’s heavy tractor and heavy and medium duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China and an overview of the Chinese macroeconomy. This quarterly report also includes access to monthly by-OEM wholesale data, alternative fuels market shares by CV application, market share percentages, industrial policy impacts, and an overview of the competitive landscape.