The Dodge Momentum Index from Dodge Data & Analytics increased 3.1% in January to 139.4 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 135.2. The index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The commercial component of the January index moved 9.9% higher, offsetting an 11.7% decrease in the institutional component.

January’s increase marked the highest level in the index since the COVID-19 pandemic began. While certainly positive news, the index also is sending a warning that the construction sector’s recovery may be very uneven in the months ahead. Institutional planning hit its lowest level since the index began in 2002 as state and local governments pull back on building plans in the wake of growing budget deficits. Conversely, commercial planning is at its highest level since before the Great Recession, fueled by an increasing number of warehouse projects and, to a somewhat lesser degree, office projects. On a year-over-year basis, the overall index is 2.2% below January 2020. The commercial component is up 12.3% year over year, while the institutional component is down 27.7%.

In January, 13 projects with a value of $100 million or more entered planning. The leading commercial projects were a $420 million Walmart distribution center in Lancaster, TX, and a $355 million Amazon warehouse (Project Roxy) in Arlington, WA. The leading institutional projects were the $175 million Norman Regional Healthplex expansion in Norman, OK, and the $156 million Mercy Health Hospital in Kings Mills, OH.

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