The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (ELFF) released the Q4/24 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot, an information resource for industry participants. The slide deck summarizes the current conditions and projections for the U.S. economy and equipment finance industry.

Among the details in the Q4/24 snapshot:

• The foundation projects that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.7%.
  • The U.S. economy expanded at 3% (SAAR) in Q2/24, an increase from 1.6% growth in Q1/24.
  • Overall, a recession in 2024 remains unlikely. Layoffs remain low by historical standards and real wage growth is healthy, inflation is modestly elevated but largely contained, and the prospect for additional rate cuts later this year and next year should provide a boost to hiring and investment.
• Economic Tailwinds
  • Q2/24 growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, supported by a boost in inventories, business investment and government spending.
  • Economic headwinds include negative growth in residential investment and net exports.
  • Equipment and software investment is expected to grow at a 4.4% annualized pace in 2024.
    • E&S investment expanded 7% in Q2/24 (annualized) after growing by 4.0% in Q1/24, and is expected to moderate in the latter half of 2024.
    • Business investment grew in Q2/24, rising 3.9% (annualized). Growth contracted slightly from 4.5% in the previous quarter.
• By equipment type, investment growth in the coming six months appears set to…
  • Expand in ships & boats and aircraft.
  • Decline in construction machinery, medical equipment, railroad equipment and trucks.
• New business volume growth reported in ELFA’s Monthly Leasing and Finance Index in August was down 10% year-over-year, but remained up 3.5% year-to-date.
• Special Topics
  • Economic impact of tariffs: While tariffs have their place in U.S. trade policy, broad application would damage growth.
  • A Softening Labor Market Sparks Economic Anxiety: A period of normalization or a period of slowing?

Prepared by Keybridge Research and updated quarterly, the snapshot is available for free download online.