Federal Reserve officials are signaling a pause in interest rate cuts, citing uncertainties surrounding inflation and potential tariff increases under President-elect Donald Trump, according to minutes from the central bank’s December policy meeting, as reported by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

The Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by a quarter-point at the Dec. 17-18 meeting was described as “finely balanced.” While most officials supported the rate cut, others expressed reservations, noting the possibility of heightened inflation risks due to shifts in trade and immigration policies. The minutes suggest that while inflation is expected to continue its gradual decline toward the Fed’s 2% target, the process may take longer than previously anticipated.

“Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” the Fed minutes revealed, reflecting concerns over firmer inflation readings and potential tariffs proposed by the incoming administration.

A Cautious Approach to Future Rate Decisions

As of December, the central bank had reduced rates by one percentage point over three meetings, bringing the benchmark interest rate from a two-decade high of 5.3%. Despite these cuts, officials expressed uncertainty about the neutral interest rate — the level at which rates neither stimulate nor restrict economic growth.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted this uncertainty at a news conference following the December meeting, stating that the Fed was prepared to slow its pace of rate cuts. This sentiment was echoed in the minutes, which noted that the committee was nearing the point where further rate reductions might not be necessary.

Economic Challenges in 2025

The economic forecast prepared by the Fed’s staff incorporated assumptions about changes to trade policies that could lead to higher inflation in 2025 before it resumes a downward trajectory. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained stubbornly high at 2.8% in November, further complicating the Fed’s efforts to navigate an uncertain economic environment.

Barkin expressed concerns that wage and product cost pressures could intensify, potentially disrupting progress made in curbing inflation. “If they do, given recent experience with inflation, price-setters might have more courage to pass costs along,” he said, as quoted by WSJ.

The Fed’s balancing act underscores the complexity of managing monetary policy in a dynamic economic landscape shaped by political and global uncertainties. With President-elect Trump’s trade policies likely to play a pivotal role, all eyes remain on the central bank as it navigates these challenges in the months ahead.