Fitch Ratings affirmed the following CIT Aviation Finance III Ltd. series 2014-1 notes: Class A-1 notes at ‘Asf’; Outlook Stable.

The affirmation of the notes reflects the transaction’s consistent performance to date which has been within Fitch’s initial expectations. The stable outlook reflects Fitch’s expectation that cash flow from the portfolio of aircraft will continue to be adequate to withstand stresses commensurate with the current rating. Initial key rating drivers and the rating sensitivities are further described in Fitch’s presale report for this transaction dated June 2014.

Due to the correlation between the global economic conditions and the airline industry, the rating may be impacted by the strength of the macro environment over the remaining term of the transaction. As such, in its review of CAF III, Fitch evaluated scenarios that simulated various timing and severity of future recessions that would impact the transaction through reduced aircraft values, lease rates and utilization levels. Under these scenarios, the class A-1 notes showed little rating sensitivity.

Additionally, changes in the airline industry can have significant impact on the rating of this transaction. If the timing of or degree of technological advancement in the commercial aviation space differed materially from Fitch’s expectations, performance could be affected.

Similarly, factors influencing the supply of and demand for the aircraft types present in the trust portfolio could impact Fitch’s view of the transaction’s ability to avoid a default on the notes and, thus, could result in negative rating actions. In a review of sensitivities designed to mimic significant drops in aircraft demand and shorter asset useful lives owing to these factors, the class A-1 notes were shown to have only minor rating sensitivity, retaining investment grade ratings in all cases.