Loosening environmental regulations could significantly affect the pace of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption in the commercial trucking industry, according to a new forecast from ACT Research.

The report, part of ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus, examines the expected growth of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEVs), and natural gas-powered vehicles as the industry shifts toward decarbonization.

“Regulations have typically been a driving force for the adoption of decarbonization solutions; upcoming reductions in regulatory stringency will significantly impact deployment of decarbonization solutions, particularly in the earlier years of our forecast,” Lydia Vieth, research analyst, Electrification & Autonomy at ACT, said. “Whether the administration fully repeals, modifies, or delays key regulations, the impact on equipment decisions, fleet planning, and operational costs will be significant.”

Regulations that require lower emissions have been the greatest influence on decarbonization, and as those regulations change, or are revoked, ACT Research expects to see corresponding changes in adoption of zero-emission CVs.

“Our forecast assumes the two key regulations that have been in place for some years: CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) went live in California at the start of 2024 and beginning in 2027 the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) low-NOx regulations go into effect, will continue to prevail for now in some measure,” Ann Rundle, vice president, Electrification & Autonomy at ACT, said. “ACT Research continues to develop and refine decarbonization forecasting models that detail specific vehicle applications for medium duty (MD), heavy duty (HD), and bus market segments. Our forecasting methodology incorporates a bottom-up, apples-to-apples cost-modeling approach, considering all costs, including infrastructure. This TCO-based approach allows us to compare the full impact of life-cycle costs between competing powertrain technologies across the commercial vehicle population.”

ACT Research’s forecasting solutions, the standard NA CV OUTLOOK and the new OUTLOOK Plus, provide a complete overview of the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market, forecasting Classes 4-8 vehicles and commercial trailers. The reports highlight a unit forecast across trailers and medium and heavy-duty segments, including powertrain splits (diesel, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and natural gas).