SF Fed: Recession Risks Will Abate Beginning 2H 2012



In its most recent Economic Letter, the San Francisco Federal Reserve said, “Since the summer of 2010, the situation on the ground has changed.”

The Fed said it has revised its recession odds calculated in 2010 to account for deteriorating fiscal realities in Europe. “Viewed through the domestic lens, the immediate risks of recession appear to be low, but gradually increasing.

“International risks, though less precisely measured, are the mirror image. Risks are highest in the very short run, but then fade. In combination, the data suggest vigilance. The U.S. economy is fragile with limited ability to withstand shocks. Yet, as the economy strengthens, recession risks will gradually abate beginning in the second half of 2012,” the co-authors of the Letter noted.

To read the full text of the San Francisco Economic Letter: click here.


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