U.S. Small Business Investment Malaise Continues



The most recent data release of the Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index increased to 133.7 in August from 123.1 in July.

This is the largest monthly increase in the SBLI since February 2016, but it follows a 12% decrease the previous month. Compared to the August 2015, the index is down 1%, the third consecutive month of year-over-year decrease and sixth in the last 11.

In August, investment activity in 14 of 18 industries fell compared to a year ago. Major sectors exhibiting declines include transportation (-11%), accommodation and food service (-8%), healthcare (-5%), agriculture (-16%) and mining (-13%). Positive growth resulted in construction (7%) and arts and entertainment (9%).

“The election is putting some business on hold,” said William Phelan, president of PayNet. “Small business made an abrupt halt probably because of uncertainty on policies like health care and taxes.”

August’s small business credit trends continue to show some rising financial stress. The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) 31-90 days past due increased one basis point to 1.32% in August 2016 from 1.31% in July 2016. That is its highest level since December 2012. As compared to one year ago, delinquency increased by 13 basis points, which is the largest year-over-year increase since December 2009. Construction delinquency decreased three basis points, its largest decrease since July 2015. Transportation delinquency is up six basis points to 1.83%, its 18th consecutive month of increase and its highest level since September 2011.

“Politics are the dominant factor now,” Phelan said. “Once we get some clarity, small businesses can get back to looking for opportunities.”


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