The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation released the Q4 2022 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot. Projections for the U.S. economy predict growth by 1.8% in 2022, after contracting in the first half of the year, mainly due to weaker inventory investments.
The labor market is the primary economic tailwind for growth this year with unemployment at a multi-decade low and most sectors have regained the jobs lost early in the pandemic. However, with unemployment so low, employers are lifting wages to attract workers, which can contribute to higher inflation. Economic headwinds include global economic turmoil and a sharply slowing housing sector. Interest rates are wreaking havoc on financial markets and commodity importers, inflation is still on the and rising mortgage rates are crushing home prices.
Additionally, factors to watch include consumer reaction to interest rate hikes and energy production and prices. Equipment and software investment is expected to grow 5.9% in 2022 largely due to rapid growth in Q1/22. Rapidly-rising interest rates and a slowing economy are expected to weigh on overall E&S investment for the rest of the year, though certain end-use markets will fare better than others. New business volume (NBV) growth reported in ELFA’s Monthly Leasing and Finance Index was up 4% year over year in August. Robust investment growth early in the year supported NBV growth, though growth may slow later this year as inflation and interest rate hikes impact the economy.
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