The key theme ACT Research has been highlighting for more than a year now is the insourcing of freight from the for-hire market to private fleets — which has perhaps been the defining feature extending the soft freight cycle in an economy that has surpassed expectations — but that is nearing an end, according to the latest release of ACT’s Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Lower equipment supply, particularly by private fleets, may play a key role in a market turn in 2025, in our view. And next month, an FMCSA regulation could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states who have not heretofore been required to enforce the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “While difficult to quantify, when state driver’s license authorities downgrade a large number of CDLs on November 18, it should have two positive effects on the industry: making our roads safer and leading truckload rates higher.”
The DAT load/truck ratio isn’t exactly a scale of one to 10; it can go way past 11. It reached the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018 and the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. ACT Research’s aggregated, seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio broke above seven in early October, suggesting spot rates will rise modestly in the near term.
“But the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to drive rates higher in 2025 is not here yet,” Denoyer said.
