Economic and policy uncertainty is compounding challenges for for-hire carriers and the commercial vehicle industry, according to ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
ACT President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth said the tractor market demand was already under pressure from uncertainty alone. Still, early data suggest that a worsening economic climate is further dragging down demand. Preliminary Class 8 truck orders for April came in at 7,600 units, marking a 52% year-over-year decline and the lowest total in nearly five years, levels not seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“If there is a silver lining for the industry, it is the expected delay in targeted GHG-3 mandates that promised to make for a particularly challenging environment in the 2028–2030 period,” Vieth said. “Trump’s EPA, while still on the fence for the EPA’s Clean Truck mandate in 2027, has signaled that GHG-3 is viewed as regulatory overreach and unlikely to survive, allowing forecasts to float higher.”
Vieth also noted that while ACT is lowering its 2025 expectations, near-term activity is getting a temporary boost as companies try to stock up before potential tariffs take effect.
“In addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the U.S., the industry is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted,” Vieth said. “As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks.”
The North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook provides short- and long-term forecasts for commercial truck and trailer demand, examining market dynamics that include orders, backlogs, macroeconomic indicators, regulatory impacts, and freight trends.
