With 2026 orderboards opening this month, the next three-to-four months of Class 8 orders will be critical for 2026, but uncertainty abounds, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“On the tractor front, carrier profitability remains under pressure, inching closer to year four of the for-hire market downturn. The group of publicly traded TL carriers’ aggregated margins in Q2 were near 2008 recession levels, and the frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs in 1H of this year elevates the risk of a freight air pocket into the end of 2025,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “Additionally, while the U.S. consumer has remained resilient, signs of labor market weakness, and the fact that the full brunt of tariff costs has yet to be passed on to the consumer, are further risks to goods demand.”
“On the vocational side, a trio of headwinds has greatly reduced demand. First, the EPA’s March ‘review’ announcement quickly ended vocational prebuying ahead of EPA’27, with many fleets believing that EPA’27 low NOx regulations ceased to be a future concern,” Vieth said. “On top of regulatory matters, there are funding freezes delaying infrastructure project starts, despite Congress having already appropriated the funding. Lastly, deepening softness in housing and a construction pullback, solid freight generating segments, adds to vocational woes. Currently, elevated new home inventories are an added obstacle to recovery.”
“Vocational inventories are just off record levels, and backlogs are currently at five-year lows,” Vieth said. “Steep production cuts have already occurred to help alleviate backlog pressure, but elevated inventory remains a challenge for future production.”
