After a largely lethargic year for orders in 2025, recent improvement in Class 8 order activity suggests optimism is growing for 2026, according to ACT Research. The recent shift hinges primarily on three factors.
“First, the economy continues to exceed expectations, growing 4.4% Q/Q in Q3/25. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow expects 4.2% growth in Q4,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “AI- and wealth-driven economic growth helped to absorb overcapacity into the end of 2025, and the economy appears to have good momentum into early 2026. Looking forward, the high likelihood the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional may lead to an inventory restock, further bolstering for-hire volumes.”
Vieth added, “Second, following nearly three years of stagnant freight rates, successive winter storms across the Midwest in December and January caused aggregate DAT spot rates to surge 17% Y/Y in January. DAT’s load-to-truck ratio rose from 5 in November to just above 9 at the end of last month. The run-up in rates has likely given deep-pocketed large fleets confidence that the improving supply-demand balance will allow some of the early 2026 freight rate spike to stick beyond recent bad weather impacts.”
Vieth continued, “Lastly, part of the recent order uptick has been attributable to clarity around the EPA’s Clean Truck low NOx rule after months of crickets following the EPA’s ‘review’ announcement last March. With fleets aging, and new engine technologies expected at the start of 2027, better economic growth and improving rates support some prebuying ahead of the coming mandate.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “With the biggest four technology companies in the U.S. set to deploy an astronomical $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI investments in 2026, vocational appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show no signs of slowing in the short term.”
