The business aviation market remained stable during H1/26 despite continuing geopolitical uncertainty, according to Global Jet Capital’s Q2/26 Global Jet Business Aviation Market Brief.
Business jet departures were up, OEM backlogs grew, and transaction activity was healthy. Following a strong first half, the business jet market is well positioned for the balance of 2026.
Q2/26 HIGHLIGHTS
- The global economy remained stable in Q2, with global GDP growing 2.3% during the quarter. Economists expect steady growth through the remainder of the year absent significant external events.
- Business jet departures experienced broad-based growth in H1, rising 3.4% year over year.
- OEM backlogs rose 20.4% year over year in Q2/26, reaching $66.8 billion as new orders for business jets continued to increase.
- Reported transaction activity was lower in H1, apparently reflecting delays in data reporting rather than a material decline in transactions.
- Pre-owned aircraft availability declined in Q2, driven by fewer young aircraft being listed for sale.
- In Q2/26, average bluebook values increased 2.9% on a year-over-year basis, although variance was observed across segments and models.
Global Economy
The global economy remained stable in Q2/26 despite geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In Q1 2026, Brent Crude oil prices rose 106.5%,ii and the U.S. Volatility Index (VIX) increased 68.9%.iii During Q2/26, however, Brent Crude oil prices declined 44.6%,iv and the VIX declined 24.1%,v pointing to more stable conditions at the end of the quarter. Furthermore, the broader economic foundation remained firm, with global GDP rising an estimated 2.3% according to Oxford Economics. Economists pointed to a buildout of AI infrastructure as a major catalyst for global economic growth during the quarter.vi
The global economic outlook remains uncertain, however. As of publication time, hostilities have resumed in the Middle East, disrupting the flow of oil out of the region, and global trade remains disrupted due to the conflict and related trade disputes. Despite this uncertainty, economists expect growth to continue through the second half of 2026. For example, the IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Report projects global GDP expansion of 3% for the calendar year,vii while Oxford Economics expects global growth for 2026 to be more modest but still respectable at 2.5%.viii
With steady economic growth and the wealth creation that accompanies it, the business jet market remains well positioned for continued health through the remainder of 2026.
Flight Operations
Demand for business aviation has grown consistently since mid-2024. In Q2/26, business jet departures increased 3.2% year over year, with global departures up 3.4% through the first half of the year. North America led global growth, with departures increasing 4.9% year over year. Declines in the Middle East, driven by regional geopolitical events, contributed to a 1% year-over-year decrease in rest of world departures in Q2. Fractional operators remained the leading growth segment, posting solid gains throughout the quarter.
Departures in Q2/26 increased 8.5% from Q1 2026, in line with historical seasonal patterns as flights ramped up following winter lows in Q1.
This strong performance reflected the consistent expansion of the business aviation user base over the past five years. Supported by the industry’s core value propositions — personal safety, flexibility, productivity, and comfort — and bolstered by continued creation of global wealth, flight operations are expected to remain steady in 2026.
OEM Backlogs
OEM backlogs rose 20.4% year over year in Q2/26, reaching $66.8 billion. Aggregate Q2/26 deliveries were nearly even with Q2 2025. Following year-over-year increases in Q1, total first-half deliveries for the five main OEMs increased 4.5% year over year as OEMs continued to address supply chain and labor issues. Even as deliveries remained at a healthy level, strong demand for new business jets persisted. Orders grew in Q2 supported by activity from both fleet operators and private users, resulting in an industry-wide book-to-bill ratio above 1-to-1. With lead times among major manufacturers remaining between 18 and 26 months on average (and even longer for some models), OEMs can sustain current delivery levels throughout the remainder of 2026 while maintaining a healthy backlog.
Transactions ($ Volume)
Note that the latest figures from 2026 reflect preliminary data and may increase as more transactions are reported to data providers.
Based on available data, year-to-date Q2/26 transaction dollar volume decreased by 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025. The downturn follows an active end to 2025, when Q4 transaction dollar volume increased by 19.3% year over year.
Analysis of other data sources, however, including OEM reports and our own field intelligence at Global Jet Capital, indicates that a significant proportion of the decline may be attributable to delays in official data reporting. As additional transactions are reported, we expect 2026 results to move more in line with historical trends.
As reported, new deliveries declined throughout H1/26, with unit volume falling 19.8% and dollar volume decreasing 14.5%. As additional transactions are reported, however, we expect final 2026 new-delivery transaction data to be largely on target. While isolated pockets of supply chain and labor constraints remain an issue, OEM commentary from the quarter reflected continued progress toward resolution.
In Q2/26, YTD pre-owned transaction unit volume was down 7.5% and dollar volume was up 7% year over year. The divergence between unit volume and dollar volume was attributable to continued stability in aircraft values and strong demand for heavy jets. At the same time, declines in unit volume were driven by reporting delays as well as an unfavorable comparison with an unusually active beginning of 2025. In Q1 2025, pre-owned unit volume increased 37.4% year over year as some buyers accelerated transactions to finalize deals ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff implementation. Without that time pressure, Q1 2026 transaction unit volume declined 18% from Q1 2025. By Q2 2025, market conditions had stabilized, making it a more normal comparison; as a result, transactions increased 3.7% in Q2/26. That increase was not enough to balance out the full first-half comparison, but it does indicate that demand for business jets has remained healthy. With signs of continued activity, transactions are expected to continue at a steady pace throughout the rest of the year.
For Sale Inventory
Driven by listings for older aircraft, business jet listings increased 3.3% year over year through the end of Q2/26, following a 5.8% decline in 2025.
Aircraft listings have fluctuated over the past few years. In 2021, strong market activity led to many transactions involving unlisted aircraft, contributing to a 25.3% drop in public listings compared to 2019. Between early 2022 through mid-2024, sellers returned to publicly listing their aircraft, driving listings back in line with historical norms. Strong market activity again drove new listings down between mid-2024 and 2025, but through the first half of 2026, listings again began rising.
This latest uptick is largely composed of older aircraft. In the first half of 2026, listings for aircraft 12 years old and younger fell 1.6%, while listings for aircraft 13 years old and older grew 5.3%. This expanding proportion of older inventory resumes a long-term industry trend. Older jets accounted for 58.4% of total listings in 2019 and climbed to 68.3% by 2022. After a brief period of stability, that share reached 72.7% through the end of Q2/26.
In Q2/26, aircraft availability reached 6.6% of the fleet, a decline from 6.7% of the fleet available at the end of Q1/26. Availability at the end of the quarter was also lower than the 7.3% recorded at the end of Q2/25 and well below the historical average of roughly 10%.
The decline in availability in Q2 resulted from fewer younger aircraft being listed for sale. As fewer 12-year-old and newer aircraft were listed in Q2, availability declined from 3.9% at the end of Q1 to 3.7% by the end of Q2. On the other hand, older aircraft remained flat between Q1 and Q2 at 8.2% of the fleet available for sale. Still, over the past year, availability of all aircraft has declined, with younger aircraft declining from 4.8% of the fleet and older aircraft declining from 8.6% of the fleet at the end of Q2/25.
Declining inventory levels are a sign of strong demand for business jets as owners hold on to their assets and acquire new ones. For younger aircraft, declining inventory is also reflective of lower OEM production rates, particularly the lows of 2020 – 21. The dynamic of strong demand sets the business jet market up for a solid H2/26 and availability should continue to track below historical averages.
Residual Value
The above chart compares the year-over-year percentage change in the bluebook value of like-aged aircraft over time (e.g., the difference between the value of an eight-year-old aircraft from one year to the next). Global Jet Capital analyzes a basket of aircraft as a proxy for the overall market. Values vary on a model-by-model basis and observed increases or decreases in value are not necessarily applicable to any specific aircraft make/model. For the value of a specific aircraft, please contact a licensed aircraft appraiser.
In Q2/26, aircraft bluebook values for like-aged aircraft increased 2.9% compared to Q2/25, reflecting appreciation on a year-over-year basis. Between Q1 and Q2/26, aggregate values remained largely stable, increasing 0.3%.
In 2023, aircraft availability normalized following a prolonged period of constrained supply. This shift restored balance between supply and demand and contributed to a period of relative price stability during 2024. Strong demand in 2025 that continued into the first half of 2026 led to aircraft availability declining once again, driving aircraft values up through the first half of 2026.
Value trends varied across the installed base in Q2/26. As noted previously, the availability of older aircraft remained higher than that of younger aircraft. Consequently, values for aircraft aged 13 years and older increased 1.9% during the quarter. At the same time, values for aircraft aged 12 years and younger rose at a faster pace, increasing 3.3%.
It is worth noting that business jets are depreciating assets and a steady decline in the price of an aircraft over its lifespan is to be expected. The market should transition away from the heightened activity observed in late 2025 towards more balanced and typical supply-and-demand conditions. Aircraft values are expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future, notwithstanding ongoing economic uncertainty.
Conclusion
Q2/26 was a time of steady global economic growth.
As of press time, geopolitical flashpoints have become more active, creating renewed uncertainty. Still, economists continue to expect steady growth throughout the rest of the year. That steady economic growth, along with continued wealth generation during the first half of 2026, contributed to strength in the business jet market. Business jet departures were up, backlogs remained high, transaction activity was healthy, availability remained low, and values appreciated. Together, these factors place the business jet market in a strong position, with activity expected to remain positive for the remainder of the year.
