With actual economic activity and freight market metrics generally in line with expectations, ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK leaves both the Classes 5-7 and Class 8 forecasts unchanged in September, while the trailer forecast was reduced incrementally on perceived supply chain ramp challenges.
The current freight cycle continues to be defined by capacity constraints, with industry conversations highlighting ongoing supply-side challenges driven by the impact of regulatory and judicial changes. While demand for new equipment remains fundamentally supported by improving carrier profitability and pent-up replacement needs, the immediate challenge is the industry’s ability to ramp production, which is occurring now in the Class 8 market, but also particularly for trailers as the 2027 capex planning cycle begins.
“Supply-side constraints remain the defining feature of this cycle to date, even as carrier profitability improves and replacement demand builds,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “With Class 8 backlogs long and the industry working through the ‘growing pains’ of ramping production, the outlook for new equipment demand is healthy but increasingly dependent on how quickly supply chains and manufacturing tiers can respond.”
