The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) released its October 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI), revealing confidence in the equipment finance market is 60.4, easing from the September index of 62.4. The index provides a qualitative assessment from key executives in the $1.3 trillion equipment finance industry.
October 2026 Survey Results
- Business Conditions: When assessing the next four months, 27.3% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve, an increase from 26.1% in September. Those who believe business conditions will remain the same decreased to 68.2% from 69.6% the previous month. The percentage of executives who believe business conditions will worsen was relatively unchanged from the previous month at 4.5%.
- CapEx Demand: For the next four months, 18.2% of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (down from 31.8% in September). Additionally, 81.8% expect demand to remain the same (up from 63.6% last month), and none believe demand will decline (down from 4.6% in September).
- Access to Capital: Over the next four months, 19.0% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, a decrease from 27.3% in September. The majority (81.0%) anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, an increase from 72.7% the previous month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from September.
- Employment: Regarding employment over the next four months, 42.9% of executives expect to hire more employees, a decrease from 47.8% in September. Another 52.4% foresee no change in headcount (up from 47.8% last month), and 4.8% expect to hire fewer employees (up slightly from 4.4% from September).
- S. Economy: Of the respondents, 4.5% evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” relatively unchanged from 4.2% in September; 90.9% assess it as “fair,” down from 91.7% last month; and 4.5% evaluate it as “poor,” relatively unchanged from 4.2% in September.
- Economic Outlook: Over the next six months, 18.2% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a decrease from 20.8% in September. Another 59.1% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same,” up from 54.2% last month; and 22.7% believe economic conditions will worsen, a decrease from 25.0% in September.
- Business Development Spending: Over the next six months, 38.1% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, a decrease from 39.1% in September. Those who believe there will be “no change” in business development spending increased to 61.9% from 60.9% the previous month, and none believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from September.
October 2026 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership
Bank, Small Ticket
“2026 has been a solid year for new business volume and Q4 looks to be on track to finish the year strong,” David Normandin, CLFP, president and CEO of Wintrust Specialty Finance, said. “Obligor confidence in the market is evidenced by this volume increase and credit quality has improved throughout the year. The industry and our customers continue to adapt to uncertainty and take advantage of the opportunities that it creates, We look forward to an excellent finish to the year.”
Independent, Middle Ticket
“The rising interest rate environment will ignite more weakness in the credit markets,” Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO of Elevex Capital, said. “We expect delinquency and charge-offs to increase in most markets.”
