Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the business jet market remained healthy during Q3/26. Rising flight activity, strong demand for new aircraft, tight aircraft availability, and appreciating values place the industry in a solid position for a strong finish to the year.
Q3/26 Highlights
- GDP rose 2.4% during the quarter, reflecting a growing economy that remained resilient despite geopolitical conflict, supporting business jet demand.
- Business jet departures continued to grow, with North America being the fastest-growing region and fractional operators being the fastest-growing market segment.
- OEM backlogs reached $62.9 billion in Q3/26, up 23% year over year, as strong demand persisted and the industry-wide book-to-bill ratio remained above 1-to-1.
- Reported year-to-date transaction volume declined, but this appears to be due to reporting delays and difficult prior-year comparisons.
- Aircraft available for purchase remained tight, especially newer aircraft, although overall availability rose slightly from Q2. A decline in new listings coupled with continued strong demand kept availability below historical averages.
- Average bluebook values for like-aged aircraft increased 6.6% on a year-over-year basis, although variance was observed across segments and models.
Global Economy
The global economy remained uncertain but resilient in Q3/26. Several factors contributed to global economic uncertainty in the quarter, including the conflict in the Middle East and the announcement of additional U.S. tariffs. Although some crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued, transporting energy out of the region became more costly, driving Brent Crude prices to $115.91 by the end of Q3. In addition, the U.S. implemented a new round of tariffs in July covering 99.4% of U.S. imports. Together, these factors put upward pressure on global inflation, which constrained consumer spending growth and prompted some central banks to raise interest rates.
Still, the global economy continued to grow during the quarter. GDP grew 2.4% year over year, while OECD unemployment remained stable. AI-related capital investment also continued to drive global economic activity.
For these reasons, economists expect global growth to continue through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, despite the uncertainty. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Oxford Economics expects more modest (but still respectable) growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
With steady economic growth and the wealth creation that accompanies it, the business jet market remains well positioned for the remainder of 2026.
Flight Operations
Demand for business aviation has grown since mid-2024. In Q3/26, business jet departures increased 1.3% year over year. North America led global growth in flight activity, with departures rising 2.4%. In contrast, regional geopolitical events in the Middle East contributed to a 1.2% year-over-year decline in departures across the rest of the world. Fractional operators remained the leading growth segment, posting solid gains throughout the quarter. Departures also increased 1.1% from Q2/26, consistent with historical seasonal patterns following strong spring travel activity.
Year-to-date departures were up 2.7% through the end of September 2026. North America led this growth, with departures increasing 3.8% compared with the same period in 2025, while flight activity in the rest of the world remained roughly in line with 2025 levels.
This strong performance reflects the expansion of the business aviation user base over the past five years. Supported by the industry’s core value propositions — personal safety, flexibility, productivity and comfort — and bolstered by continued global wealth creation, flight operations are expected to remain steady through the remainder of 2026.
OEM Backlogs
OEM backlogs rose 23% year over year in Q3/26, reaching $62.9 billion. Aggregate deliveries in the quarter were up 6.5% compared with Q3/25. Through the end of Q3, year-to-date deliveries were up 5.2% year over year as OEMs continued to address supply chain and labor issues. Although deliveries remained at a healthy level, strong demand for new business jets persisted. Orders grew in Q2, supported by activity from both fleet operators and private users, resulting in an industry-wide book-to-bill ratio above 1-to-1. With average lead times among major manufacturers remaining between 18 and 26 months (and even longer for some models) OEMs can sustain current delivery levels throughout the remainder of 2026 while maintaining healthy backlogs.
Transactions ($ Volume)
Based on available data, year-to-date transaction dollar volume through Q3/26 decreased 5.1% from the same period in 2025. The downturn follows an active end to 2025, when Q4 transaction dollar volume increased 19.3% year over year.
However, analysis of other data sources, including OEM reports and Global Jet Capital’s field intelligence, indicates that delays in official data reporting may account for a portion of the decline. As additional transactions are reported, we expect 2026 results to align more closely with historical trends.
As reported, new deliveries declined during the first three quarters of 2026, with unit volume falling 16.6% and dollar volume decreasing 11.8%. As additional transactions are reported, however, we expect final 2026 new-delivery transaction data to be largely on target. OEM commentary during the quarter reflected continued progress in resolving the remaining isolated supply chain and labor constraints on new aircraft production.
Through Q3/26, year-to-date pre-owned transaction unit volume was down 10.6%, while dollar volume was up 3.0% year over year. The divergence was attributable to continued stability in aircraft values and strong demand for heavy jets.
The decline in unit volume was driven by delayed transaction reporting and an unfavorable comparison with an unusually active start to 2025. Based on historical reporting lags, we estimate that pre-owned transactions declined roughly 2% year to date. Much of this decline reflects year-over-year weakness in Q1. In Q1/25, pre-owned unit volume increased 37.4% year over year as some buyers accelerated transactions to close deals ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs. Without that time pressure, Q1/26 transaction unit volume declined 16.7% from the prior-year period. While that effect has moderated as Q2 and Q3 comparisons have normalized, it continues to weigh on year-to-date results. Market activity remains healthy, and transactions are expected to continue at a steady pace through the remainder of the year.
For Sale Inventory
Driven by a decline in listings of newer aircraft, business jet listings decreased 1.1% year over year through the end of Q3/26, following a 5.8% decline in 2025.
Following a decline in public listings in 2021, sellers returned to the public market from 2022 through mid-2024, bringing listings back in line with historical norms. Beginning in mid-2024 and continuing through 2025, strong market activity drove listings down again, resulting in the sharp decline noted above. In 2026, listings fluctuated from month to month but remained roughly in line with 2025 levels on a year-to-date basis.
While overall listing levels were similar in 2025 and 2026, the mix by aircraft age shifted. Listings for aircraft aged 12 years and younger fell 10.8% year to date, while listings for aircraft aged 13 years and older grew 3.1%. The growing share of older aircraft represents a return to a long-term industry trend. Older jets accounted for 58.4% of total listings in 2019, rising to 68.3% by 2022. After a brief period of stability, their share rose to 72.7% by the end of Q3/26.
Aircraft availability ended Q3 at 6.7% of the fleet, a slight increase from 6.6% at the end of Q2 but a significant decline from 7.6% at the end of Q3/25.
Availability increased slightly across all age groups on a quarter-over-quarter basis in Q3. Availability of aircraft aged 12 years and younger rose from 3.7% to 3.8%, while availability of aircraft aged 13 years and older increased from 8.2% to 8.3%. However, availability in both age groups remained well below year-ago levels. Furthermore, the modest quarter-over-quarter increase appears to represent stabilization at tight levels rather than loosening supply, with the gap between newer and older segments underscoring continued scarcity for high-quality young aircraft.
For younger aircraft, low inventory also reflects lower OEM production rates, particularly during 2020 – ‘21. The combination of constrained supply and strong demand positions the business jet market for a solid end to 2026, with availability remaining below historical averages.
Residual Value
In Q3/26, aircraft bluebook values for like-aged aircraft increased 6.6% compared with Q3/25, reflecting appreciation on a year-over-year basis.
Value trends continued to vary across the installed base. Values for aircraft aged 12 years and younger increased 6.9% year over year in Q3/26, compared with 5.7% for aircraft aged 13 years and older. While younger aircraft outperformed older aircraft throughout the period shown, the improvement was broad-based.
It is worth noting that business jets are depreciating assets, and a steady decline in an aircraft’s price over its lifespan is to be expected. Current developments are supported by stable demand as well as a broader industry context of new aircraft pricing and wait times. Longer term, we can expect historical depreciation trends to resume, resulting in stable (versus rising) values for like-aged aircraft. In addition, values vary by aircraft segment and model, and future trends will depend on the balance between supply and demand.
Conclusion
The business jet market remained healthy in Q3/26. The economy remained stable despite geopolitical uncertainty. Against this backdrop, business jet departures continued to grow, led by North America. OEM backlogs also remained high. While transactions declined, this was largely due to reporting delays and a difficult prior-year comparison. Activity is expected to remain stable through the remainder of the year. Aircraft availability also remained low, driving appreciation in the value of like-aged aircraft. Together, these factors place the business jet market in a strong position, with activity expected to remain positive for the remainder of the year.
