The latest release of ACT’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in February, as freight volumes increased and capacity continued contracting.
ACT For-Hire Trucking Index Volumes February 2026The Volume Index increased 5.7 points to 62.0, seasonally adjusted (SA), in February, a four-year high, bolstered by January’s large winter storm that buffeted the Midwest, South and East Coast and created a backlog of freight.
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, commented, “For-hire volumes are benefitting from slowing/contracting private fleet growth, putting loads into the for-hire market even with the current absence of a broader freight demand recovery. The repeal of IEEPA and the expiration of §122 tariffs in 150 days should lower the effective tariff rate by roughly 10% and may help to trigger a restock. However, higher oil prices following the conflict with Iran have effectively negated any tariff benefit to consumers in the short term.”
The Capacity Index ticked down 0.4 points month over month, to 48.0 in February from 48.4 in January, the 11th consecutive month in neutral/contraction territory.
Vieth commented: “Capacity continues to exit as current levels of profitability, despite recent pricing improvements, remain a constraint on investment. Weather also had an effect, allowing for some improvement in the coming months. Increased truck orders since the news that EPA’27 will still happen, partially, is driving some purchasing, but capacity additions will likely be modest until we get closer to 2027.”
The Supply-Demand Balance increased in February to 63.9 (SA), from 58.4 in January, a 4.5 year high as volumes increased and capacity continued to contract.
Vieth concluded: “While rate gains may ease as the weather improves, FMCSA nondomicile actions should tighten the driver supply further, and as private fleets contract, for-hire demand should improve solely on the return of market share that was ceded between 2022–2025. The ending of IEEPA tariffs and the impermanent nature of §122 tariffs may help to lay the groundwork for improved inflation and some restocking, but higher oil prices may cancel out those tailwinds.”
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index is a monthly survey of for-hire trucking service providers. ACT Research converts responses into diffusion indexes, where the neutral or flat activity level is 50. Please contact us at trucks@actresearch.net if you are a for-hire executive interested in participating. In return, participants receive a detailed monthly analysis of the survey data, including Volumes, Freight Rates, Driver Availability, Capacity, Productivity and Purchasing Intentions, plus a complimentary copy of ACT’s Transportation Digest report.
ACT Research Freight Forecast provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index®, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast uses equipment capacity modeling and the firm’s industry economics expertise to provide unprecedented visibility for the future of freight rates, helping businesses in transportation and logistics management plan for the future with confidence.
