The Citizens Business Conditions Index (CBCI) held steady at 50.9 in the first quarter of 2025, down slightly from 51.0 in the fourth quarter of 2024, signaling continued economic expansion amid increasing uncertainty.
According to Citizens, the flat reading reflects solid corporate revenue trends that kept momentum positive, even as signs of slowing appeared throughout the quarter.
“Business leaders entered 2025 optimistic about the year ahead,” said Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens. “That initial optimism helped buoy the economy in the first quarter, but the forward outlook from here is more uncertain.”
Proprietary data from Citizens showed ongoing revenue growth across most industries and regions, though the Energy and Utilities sectors lagged.
Macroeconomic indicators were largely neutral. New business applications and initial jobless claims showed limited movement, though some regions—such as Delaware—saw employment disruptions tied to federal restructuring.
Both the ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes remained in expansion territory during the quarter, but sentiment weakened in March as concerns about policy shifts and global instability grew.
“The first-quarter CBCI reveals a resilient business environment that is starting to feel the impacts of softening sentiment as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persist,” the report noted.
Citizens said it expects the second-quarter index to reflect more fully the effects of evolving federal policies, including tariff negotiations.
“Overall, our clients continued to perform well in the first quarter despite elevated market volatility,” Merlis added. “As the operating environment evolves, we are working closely with them to help navigate through challenges.”
