Driven by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market, the U.S. economy continues to expand at a healthy clip, according to the Q2/24 update of the 2024 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook from the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. Real equipment and software investment growth is projected to be 2.2% in 2024, with activity expected to pick up in the latter half of the year. The report, which was prepared by Keybridge, also forecasts real GDP growth of 2.3% this year, an improvement over the 1.7% growth forecasted in the foundation’s 2024 Economic Outlook published last December.
The foundation’s report is focused on the $1.16 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry and highlights key trends in equipment investment, placing them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.
“The foundation’s Q2 outlook shows that the ‘soft landing’ appears to be on track. Although equipment and software investment has been weak across most verticals over the last year, activity is expected to pick up as the year goes on, consistent with recent releases of the foundation’s Momentum Monitors and Monthly Confidence Index,” Leigh Lytle, president of the foundation and president and CEO of the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association, said. “The Fed is likely to be cautious about rate cuts, particularly given recent backtracking on inflation, but we still expect borrowing costs to fall later this year.”
Highlights from the Q2/24 update to the 2024 outlook include:
The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is released in conjunction with the economic outlook, tracks 12 equipment and software investment verticals. This month, five verticals are expanding, two are recovering, three are weakening and two are “on the line” between expanding and recovering. Over the next three to six months, the foundation expects the following trends to materialize on a year-over-year basis:
The foundation produces the Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report in partnership with economic and public policy consulting firm Keybridge Research. The annual economic forecast provides a U.S. macroeconomic outlook, credit market conditions and key economic indicators. The Q2/24 report is the first update to the 2024 outlook and will be followed by two more quarterly updates before the publication of the 2025 outlook in December.
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