Spot truckload freight volumes increased in January as shippers replenished inventories post-holidays and adapted to shifting market conditions, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. While freight volumes rose, ongoing concerns over fuel costs, potential tariffs, and disruptive winter weather left the market in a state of uncertainty.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which measures van, refrigerated (“reefer”), and flatbed load movements, saw month-over-month increases across all categories:
- Van TVI: 277, up 6%
- Reefer TVI: 237, up 7%
- Flatbed TVI: 256, up 8%
Year-over-year, the TVI also posted gains, with van freight up 8%, reefer loads climbing 13%, and flatbed freight increasing 6%. Notably, the van TVI has remained in positive year-over-year territory for ten consecutive months, reflecting ongoing demand stability in this sector.
Spot Rates Rise, But Lag Behind Demand
While spot rates in January edged higher, they failed to keep pace with increased freight movement. The national average rates for spot freight were:
- Van: $2.16 per mile, up 4 cents
- Reefer: $2.55 per mile, up 8 cents
- Flatbed: $2.44 per mile, up 5 cents
Carriers sought to recover higher fuel costs compared to December, with diesel prices averaging $3.63 per gallon, a 14-cent increase from the previous month. Linehaul rates, which exclude fuel surcharges, also saw slight gains: van rates increased by 2 cents to $1.76 per mile, reefer rates rose 6 cents to $2.12 per mile, and flatbed rates gained 2 cents to $1.96 per mile.
“January was a month of mixed indicators, with shippers rebalancing inventories as they typically do while responding to the uncertainty of tariffs, higher fuel costs, and unusually bad weather,” said Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics.
Contract Rates Signal Market Equilibrium
Rates for long-term contract freight held relatively steady in January, with slight month-over-month increases:
- Contract van rate: $2.41 per mile, up 2 cents (down 3 cents year over year)
- Contract reefer rate: $2.76 per mile, up 2 cents (down 10 cents year over year)
- Contract flatbed rate: $3.07 per mile, up 1 cent (down 1 cent year over year)
The margin between spot and contract van and reefer rates tightened for the fifth consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since March 2022. DAT’s New Rate Differential (NRD), a measure of contract market strength, stood at 1.4% in December, indicating a balanced market.
“The van NRD has been positive for four straight months and trending higher for almost two years,” Adamo said. “It may not feel like it, given last month’s business and trade volatility, but spot and contract freight data reflected a market in equilibrium in January.”
Implications for the Equipment Finance Market
The steady truckload volumes and modest spot rate increases signal ongoing equipment utilization, which could sustain demand for truck financing and leasing. However, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fuel costs could lead to a cautious approach among fleet operators when making capital expenditures. Lenders and lessors may see heightened interest in flexible financing solutions as carriers seek to balance cost pressures with fleet renewal needs. Additionally, the equilibrium in contract rates suggests that financial institutions supporting the freight sector may face a stable yet competitive lending environment in the months ahead.
