The national Citizens Business Conditions Index (CBCI) rose to 52.2 in Q2/24, pushing into expansionary territory after taking a step back at the beginning of the year. The reading above 50 indicates that economic momentum is building, in this case due to higher company revenue coupled with the prospect of easing monetary policy, which lowers the cost of capital.
Citizens’ data showed strong company revenue trends during the period after soft performance across most industries in Q1/24. All other components of the index remained relatively neutral with the labor market and new business growth showing signs of rebalancing.
“Increasing company revenue drove the Index higher in the second quarter as our clients felt some wind in their sails,” Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens, said.
The underlying components of the index were neutral but provide a solid foundation for growth in the coming months:
- The ISM non-manufacturing component remained in expansionary territory but declined from Q1/24. The ISM manufacturing component was contractionary for the seventh consecutive quarter.
- Employment trends, as measured by initial jobless claims, continued to show resilience and were neutral to the index.
- New business applications were neutral for the quarter but remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.
- The activity data of Citizens’ commercial banking clients showed strong revenue trends after a weak first quarter, serving as the main engine for the Index’s uptick.
- Overall, the second quarter CBCI reveals a business environment that has adapted to a sustained period of higher rates.
“The second quarter index reading shows a business environment that is turning the corner with the prospect of easing monetary policy and cheaper capital,” Merlis said. “Concerns about inflation persist but the economy has shown resilience and seems poised for greater expansion.”
