Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman Index grew earnings by 3% year over year in Q3/25. Revenue grew 4% during the same period.
“Middle market companies showed solid revenue and profit growth in the third quarter, underscoring the resilience of the U.S. economy. Our third quarter data is consistent with patterns we saw throughout the first half of the year: steady U.S. economic growth, albeit at a slower pace than 2024, and broadly healthy consumer spending,” Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said. “We also saw across our portfolio companies last quarter that the bonus depreciation provisions of the July tax bill helped unclog capital expenditure decision-making. As these capital investments flow through the economy, we expect them to provide a tailwind for growth.”
Dr. Edward I. Altman concluded, “Our data suggests that U.S. companies continued to successfully navigate a challenging and uncertain environment in the third quarter. Profit margins generally were stable and, in the case of our healthcare and technology sector samples, modestly expanded. This suggests that companies in our sample continued to exercise pricing power and maintain cost discipline — boosting cash flow even before the effects of the Fed’s rate cut in September and the future cuts expected by the market.”
