The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI) released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) showed that new equipment demand in October hovered near its 2025 high, demonstrating resilience despite heightened market volatility. Growth in total new business volumes (NBV) is expected to exceed $117 billion this year, positioning 2025 as one of the strongest years on record. ELFA expects the Fed’s recent policy easing to foster additional momentum into next year, even if policymakers decide to pause cuts in December. Financial conditions remain healthy across the industry.
Total NBV among surveyed ELFA member companies was $10.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same amount as in the prior month. Year-to-date NBV contracted by 1.4% relative to the same period in 2024. Year-over-year, NBV increased by 5.7% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
“Equipment demand was unfazed by the government shutdown in October. The latest data showed businesses continue to invest despite a volatile and unpredictable fall,” Leigh Lytle, president and CEO at ELFA, said. “At the current pace, 2025 will end up as the second-best year for equipment demand in the history of our CFI survey, which goes back to 2006. We’re going to see momentum really build as we put the government shutdown further in the rearview. The path for interest rates remains uncertain, but that doesn’t change the fact that our industry is financially healthy, setting us up for a strong start to 2026.”
Equipment demand remained strong. Total NBV grew by $10.5 billion in October, the same increase as in the prior month, which tied the fastest pace in 2025. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity that banks, independents, and captives added in a given month. The strong October increase pushed the forecast for total new volume growth in 2025 to just over $117 billion, down from last year’s record pace, but above the total amount recorded in 2023.
Small ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an important barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small ticket deals grew by $3.7 billion, the largest increase since July of 2024, and an increase of 13.0% from the prior month. Of the three institution types, banks experienced the largest increase in new volumes in October, rising by $4.8 billion. Growth at captives and independents rose by $3.3 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. Year-to-date new volume growth was up by 6.5% at banks relative to the first nine months of 2024, but down by 15.6% and 2.4% at captives and independents, respectively.
The overall credit approval rate hovered around its decade high. The industry-wide average ticked down to 79.0% in October, the second-highest reading since 2016. The average small ticket approval rate dropped to 81.2%. It has declined for two consecutive months but remains above the average of 79.7% recorded during the first half of the year. The rate at banks rose to a record of 82.1%. The rate at captives fell to 82.0%, while the rate at independents rose to 70.7%.
Delinquencies rise, but losses fall. The overall delinquency rate rose by 0.24 percentage points to 2.2%. The October increase more than offset the 0.19 percentage point decline in September. However, the overall rate has been holding in a narrow range since July of last year, and the October data remained in that narrow band. Delinquencies at independents rose sharply, while the average rate at banks rose, but was essentially unchanged at captives.
The overall loss rate declined by 0.04 percentage points to 0.44% in the latest data. It was the second decline in as many months and the lowest reading since May. The average loss rate for small ticket deals dropped to 0.57%. Loss rates declined slightly at all three major institution types.
The Monthly Confidence Index from ELFA’s affiliate, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, tracks the sentiment of executives in the industry. The index remains at a heightened level for the sixth consecutive month, relatively unchanged at 59.9 in November, from 60.1 in October.
Technical Note: New business volume data are concurrently seasonally adjusted each month to capture the latest seasonal patterns. Data in previous months and years may change due to updated seasonal factors.
