The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance increased in November, as freight volumes and capacity increased.
The volume index increased 7.6 points to 54.6 (seasonally adjusted) in November, recovering from a post-tariff dip to 47.0 in October.
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, commented, “Though housing-related sectors remain soft, consumer spending is growing and supporting freight as inflation slows. Low oil prices and the failure of feared tariff price increases to materialize amid legal questions likely all contributed to the m/m improvement in volumes. Tariffs will continue to drag on growth, but some reversals have begun, and the future of IEEPA tariffs looks tenuous. If reversed, it would aid affordability, reduce inflation, and help lower interest rates, which is needed to spur the housing market. The outlook in the near term is choppy for volumes broadly, just as pre-tariff shipping activity earlier this year was temporary, so too will be the paybacks.”
The capacity index increased 2.1 points M/M, to 48.9 in November from 46.8 in October.
Vieth said, “Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment. The pullback of private fleets, as well as the necessary evil of small fleet failures, will also continue to tighten capacity. Mid-November’s clarity regarding EPA’27 may be helping to reduce the capacity contraction, but prebuying will likely be modest amid limited investment budgets.”
The supply-demand balance increased in November to 55.7 (seasonally adjusted), from 50.3 in October, on higher volumes and continued capacity contractions.
Vieth concluded, “The supply-demand balance is likely to remain choppy in the near term, but successive winter storms affecting large portions of the US east of the Mississippi may create some backlogged loads and help to briefly tighten the market. Longer term, capacity continues to fall from the supply side, and based on recent production cuts, we estimate 4k-5k tractors are exiting the population every month, tightening capacity. Demand is needed too, and though tariffs are a drag, consumers continue to support the economy. Additionally, lower interest rates in 2026 should help to rehabilitate sectors like housing.”
