After a 2025 mired in stagnant freight rates and beset by regulatory and policy uncertainty, 2026 begins with signs of cautious optimism for tractor and vocational markets, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth. Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “Secondly, spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather and a quickening of capacity contractions. Though much of the gains are likely to reverse if January weather continues to warm.”
Vieth added, “Lastly, EPA’s mid-November announcement regarding EPA’27 added much needed regulatory clarity, and based on December’s preliminary orders, likely drove some decision making. ACT’s preliminary look at December data shows NA Class 8 net orders totaled 42,700 units, up 16% Y/Y. In addition to regulatory pressures aiding demand, an increasingly older fleets should facilitate some additional replacement demand in 2026.”
Vieth concluded, “Like the tractor market, the vocational market was caught in regulatory and policy headwinds throughout 2025, but appears poised for a better-than-previously-expected 2026.”
