Truckload spot rates rose sharply in late December and early January, but the freight market remains on uncertain footing as weather disruptions, regulatory clarity and a pending Supreme Court tariff decision continue to influence capacity and demand, according to a new freight forecast from ACT Research.
Spot rates were up by double-digit percentages year over year for several weeks during the period, largely driven by severe winter weather that constrained capacity, according to the report. Weather remains a near-term risk for the truckload market.
ACT Research also noted an increase in Class 8 truck orders in December, reflecting improved truckload conditions and greater clarity around upcoming federal low-nitrogen oxide emissions rules scheduled for 2027. The firm expects a modest contraction in equipment capacity beginning in 2026 that could extend into 2027.
Freight growth has so far been concentrated in a narrow segment of the economy, said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research. That growth could broaden, he said, depending on how the Supreme Court rules on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
A decision to reduce or overturn the tariffs could ease inflationary pressures and give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to lower interest rates, Denoyer said. Lower rates could support freight-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods, particularly after a period of inventory reductions expected later this year.
If the tariffs are upheld, Denoyer said, higher prices could prolong the difficult conditions the trucking industry has faced for several years.
The report also highlighted the aging U.S. truck fleet as a potential turning point for the market. The average age of a Class 8 tractor has climbed to 6.3 years, the highest level in more than a decade, a trend that could eventually drive replacement demand and mark a new phase in the truckload cycle.
