The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance decreased in January, as freight volumes and capacity both decreased.
The volume index decreased 4.4 points to 56.3, seasonally adjusted, in January, remaining elevated, though with a bit less winter storm-induced tightness than December.
“While demand may soften seasonally in the coming months, the volume outlook is aided by lower inflation as a result of the Supreme Court striking down IEEPA tariffs,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “With soft housing and job markets, freight demand is unlikely to surge without a larger than expected drop in interest rates. But with replacement tariffs also legally questionable and expiring in July, shippers may be nearing a restock.”
The capacity index decreased 1.5 points month over month to 48.4 in January from 49.9 in December, the 10th consecutive month in neutral/contraction territory.
“Capacity continues to contract as current levels of profitability remain a constraint on investment,” Vieth said. “Weather also had an effect, allowing for an improvement in the coming months. Increased truck orders since the recent news that EPA’27 will still happen at lower cost is driving some purchasing, but prebuying will likely be modest amid limited investment budgets.”
The supply-demand balance decreased in January to a still elevated 57.9 (seasonally adjusted), from 60.8 in December, as volume declines outweighed capacity contractions.
Vieth concluded, “While gains may relax as the weather improves, there are positives entering 2026. The economy continues to exceed expectations, and beyond the temporary effects, the freight cycle has improved. Capacity continues to exit the market, though a small prebuy ahead of EPA’27 will slow the velocity of tightening, and the potential tailwind of IEEPA tariff reversals seems likely.”
