The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI), released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA), shows that while new deal growth edged down in March, total new business volumes (NBV) recorded its strongest quarter on record. Financial conditions remain stable despite ongoing regional tensions in the Middle East. The industry maintains a strong buffer against the surge in energy prices and the upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve.
Total NBV among surveyed ELFA member companies was $10.8 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Year-to-date NBV rose by 18.6% relative to the same period in 2025. Year-over-year, NBV increased by 12.5% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
“Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty appear to have hit another gear in 2026, but demand for equipment has so far been unaffected,” Leigh Lytle, president and CEO of ELFA, said. “New business volume growth slowed modestly in March, but the industry just experienced its strongest quarter ever. The full economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East has not yet been felt in the data, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some deterioration in demand heading into the summer. That said, financial conditions remain healthy, and I’m optimistic that our industry can weather the dual impact of higher prices and a changing of the guard at the Fed.”
Equipment demand remained strong. Total NBV grew by $10.8 billion in March, a contraction of 1.8% from the $11.0 billion recorded in February. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity added by banks, independents and captives in a given month. While the headline index has declined for two consecutive months, total new volumes hit their highest quarterly dollar amount ever at the start of the year. New volume growth is on pace to exceed its 2024 annual total, which was the largest dollar amount ever recorded in the survey’s history.
Small ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an important barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small ticket deals grew by $3.4 billion, down 17.7% from February. December through February saw the strongest total small deal volume dollar amount ever, and the March dollar amount is just under its trailing 12-month average of $3.6 billion.
Activity at banks and independents rose by 2.3%, while new volumes declined by a modest 0.2% at captives. New deals at independents plummeted 34.3% from the prior month but were only down 0.3% year over year.
The overall credit approval held firm at a high level. The industry-wide average ticked up to 77.2% in March, up 0.1 percentage points from the prior month. Over the last year, the credit approval rate was up 1.1 percentage points. The average small ticket approval rate rose for only the second time in six months, to 79.8%. The rate at banks dropped by 0.2 percentage points, while the rate at captives rose 0.8 percentage points, and the rate at independents was unchanged.
The delinquency rate edged up, and the loss rate rose further. The overall delinquency rate rose to 2.0% in March, in line with its average over the last two years. The delinquency rate at banks rose by 0.4 percentage points, while the rate at captives fell by 0.21 percentage points. The rate at independents was up 0.04 percentage points.
The overall loss rate increased by 0.07 percentage points to 0.62%. The average loss rate for small ticket deals also rose to 0.93%, driven predominantly by a single survey respondent. The average loss rate for all three industry groups increased from the prior month.
The Monthly Confidence Index tracks the sentiment of executives in the industry. The index in April is 54.6, a decrease from 61.0 in March, and the lowest level since May 2025.
“Tariffs may have stalled decision-making in 2025, but 2026 is all about execution,” John Paradisi, CEO of Libertas Funding, said. “We are seeing strong activity across construction, healthcare, and manufacturing, where businesses are moving on expansion projects and equipment upgrades that require both equipment financing and working capital. Geopolitical uncertainty, including the situation in Iran, continues to pressure supply chains and input costs, making access to flexible working capital even more critical. As borrowing costs remain elevated, businesses are prioritizing speed and access to capital over cost alone. Working capital has become the bridge that keeps large-scale projects moving forward on schedule.”
Technical Note: New business volume data are concurrently seasonally adjusted each month to capture the latest seasonal patterns. Data in previous months and years may change due to updated seasonal factors.
