While improved spot and contract rates have been the primary drivers of higher Class 8 orders, regulatory burdens, associated with higher equipment costs in 2027, have helped spur greater order activity, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“The improvement in tractor order activity starting in December 2025 boils down to improved spot and contract rates and regulatory clarity,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “Despite fuel headwinds, with WTI oil largely trading at or above $90 a barrel since the beginning of the war, spot rate gains have remained sticky. In our view, a rapidly tightening driver supply that accelerated in January has helped shield spot rates from rising costs, with aggregate spot rates rising 25% Y/Y at the end of April.”
Vieth added, “ACT’s truckload fleet survey of ~40 mid- to large-sized fleets indicated the ability to find drivers in March became the hardest it had been since 2021, impacted by state actions, such as California revoking ~17k nondomicile CDLs and Indiana revoking 1.8k last month. Regulatory burdens associated with higher equipment costs in 2027 have also helped spur greater order activity. The higher cost estimates would certainly add greater incentive to dealers and large fleets to find the budget for equipment now rather than later.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “With the four biggest technology companies in the U.S. set to deploy $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs in 2026, the vocational market appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show little sign of slowing in the short term. Additionally, after pulling back on expected prebuying in 2025 due to regulatory and trade uncertainty, vocational orders, like tractor, are benefitting from EPA’27 clarity.”
