New equipment demand continues to be buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates, driven largely by the rapid shift in driver supply, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK by ACT Research.
“Class 8 order strength continued in May, with preliminary orders of 26,500 units, up 103% Y/Y and 12% M/M (SA), respectively. Despite entering what is historically a weak period in the annual order cycle, new equipment demand remains supported by materially improved spot and contract rates, on top of regulatory clarity,” Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. “Spot freight rates have absorbed elevated fuel costs in stride, with net fuel rates rising ~39% Y/Y at the beginning of June. Spot rates are currently above contract rates, a positive omen for carriers’ contract rate negotiations and future profitability. Driver supply, according to ACT’s monthly survey of mid- to large-sized for-hire carriers, flipped from comfortable to tight beginning in January. The situation has deteriorated every month since, with April’s reading signaling tightness in the driver supply at levels not seen since mid-2021.”
Vieth added, “FMCSA’s crackdown on nondomiciled CDL holders became official in March, but self-selection appears to have started around the start of 2026. Add crackdowns on cheater ELDs, closed driver schools, and strict immigration enforcement that are squeezing productivity via restricting logbook cheating and a narrowing of the pipeline of new CDL candidates needed to offset freight growth and baby boomer retirements. Taken together, a strong case can be made that the driver supply will remain tight for an extended period, which in turn will allow fleets to find pricing relief on the heels of three years of falling profitability. Carriers’ profitability reprieve coupled with inbound regulations associated with even higher equipment costs in 2027 have also helped spur Class 8 order activity. Without a regulation looming, the trailer market is still waiting for materially stronger demand to arrive.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “With large tech companies deploying nearly a trillion dollars in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs (utilities/grid work) in 2026 alone, the vocational truck market appears poised to continue benefiting from strong secular tailwinds from AI data center builds and utility infrastructure improvements that show little to no sign of slowing in the medium term. Just last week, Google and Space X announced plans to raise $160 billion for AI projects.”
