DAT U.S. dry van truckload spot rates, net fuel, rose 47% year-over-year in July to $2.41 per mile, according to the latest release of the ACT Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report for August 2026. While the truckload market remains supply-driven, recent months have seen spot demand ease from its highs and driver availability begin to improve, signaling a seasonal lull and moderating the pace of rate increases.
The report notes that capacity constraints from regulatory changes and enforcement continue to underpin a supply-side rate recovery, even as macroeconomic headwinds and soft consumer demand weigh on overall freight volumes. Equipment posts are at historic lows, and aggregate DAT contract rates rose 8¢ month-over-month in July to $2.50 per mile, up 17% year over year. Intermodal volumes are on a record-breaking pace, while LTL tonnage has turned positive for the first time in years, reflecting freight shifting to adjacent modes as truckload capacity tightens.
“The pendulum has swung back to fleets in this early-cycle, supply-driven environment,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. “Tight driver availability and persistent regulatory constraints are keeping capacity tight, but recent pay increases and softer seasonal demand are supporting some improvement in driver supply. We expect the market to remain sensitive to seasonal shifts, with rates likely to firm again as we approach year-end.”
