A supply-driven freight cycle doesn’t imply strong volumes, and this time is no different. The current 30% Y/Y increase in truckload spot rates, net fuel, coming out of Roadcheck, is driven primarily by tighter capacity, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report by ACT Research.
“Improving survey data, including a jump in the ACT For-Hire Volume Index, suggest our friends at medium and large dry van and reefer fleets are beginning to see significantly stronger demand, even as the broader market does not,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. “The source of this early demand increase is primarily capacity reduction, which has accelerated this year due to an incipient driver shortage.”
Denoyer added, “While the goods economy is providing little lift, the key question becomes, how bad will the driver situation get? In a word, worse. Truckload spot rates have risen materially in recent months as the ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index has declined. This index was above 50, meaning a surfeit, rather than a shortage, from June 2022 to December 2025, 43 straight months. It fell to 30.4 in April. New FMCSA regulations have acted as a catalyst, and seem likely to result in tighter capacity and higher rates from here.”
