ACT Research hosted its 74th commercial vehicle outlook seminar, Market Vitals: The Current & Future Health of the Industry, on February 18 – 19. Day 2 featured an economic panel including David Teolis, chief economist at ACT Research; Mazen Danaf, lead economist at Uber Freight; and Patrick Manzi, chief economist at NADA.
Teolis shared that ACT Research’s baseline economic scenario is for “strong growth the first half of the year but concentrated in AI investments and high-income consumers, employment growth to remain low, inflation to slow toward 2%, and the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points.”
Other topics discussed during the panel included manufacturing expansion, tariffs, English language proficiency rule, nondomiciled CDL rule, peak season tightness and Winter Storm Fern/Gianna.
Also on day 2, ACT Research analysts — Tim Denoyer, Ken Vieth, Carter Vieth, Steve Tam and Jennifer McNealy — presented the current market data and forecast for freight, Class 8, Classes 5-7 and trailers.
According to Denoyer, “The for-hire freight cycle is getting ready to turn. Capacity contraction should drive demand. Tighter capacity plus the longest downturn this century equals a shift from late cycle to early cycle.”
Regarding the Class 8 market, Carter Vieth shared, “Despite the recent spot rate surge, carrier profitability remains weak. Fleets still lack capex but expect improvement in 2026. The Class 8 forecast has increased on the better-than-expected economy heading into 2026, surge in spot rates, EPA’27 clarity, and the surge in December orders.”
“Trailer customers have skipped buying cycles but remain hesitant and concerned about pricing,” McNealy said. “Fleets are balancing capex between power and trailing equipment ahead of EPA’27. OEMs are navigating subpar demand at the start of 2026 with continued uncertainty while looking for opportunities.”
About Classes 5-7, Tam said, “The medium-duty market is set to emerge from decline in 2026. Having gradually slowed in 2025 on tariffs and sagging consumer sentiment, recent order improvement is likely a reflection of continued consumer spending, cautious optimism surrounding the economic outlook, and some regulation-driven dealer stocking.”
