The latest release of ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index indicated the supply and demand balance was flat in May, as freight volumes softened, and capacity decreased.
The volume index showed significant softness for a third straight month, at 42.5 seasonally adjusted in May, down from 43.4 in April.
“The myriad impacts of tariffs and opaqueness regarding future trade decisions have destroyed business planning and slowed economic activity,” Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, said. “While we may see some improvement in trade volumes ahead of the August 9th China trade decision, the pull-forward of freight into Q1 has necessitated a payback later this year. Consumers, so far, have continued to spend, but higher prices due to tariff-driven inflation is expected to weigh on purchasing. Given the rollercoaster of policy under the new administration, freight volumes are likely to be dynamic this year.”
The capacity index decreased 0.7 points m/m, to 46.4 in May from 47.1 in April.
“Roadcheck may have contributed to some capacity shedding this month amongst the fleets in our survey, but overall market conditions are the prevailing factor behind the for-hire fleets’ capacity reductions,” Vieth said. “Q1 saw publicly traded TL carriers net profit margins fall to the lowest levels since the GFC, and if you factor in that fleets now have the benefit of the 2017 tax cuts, you could argue profitability conditions, or lack thereof, are worse than during the GFC. On top of that, steel, aluminum and parts tariffs have added thousands to the cost of a tractor, and further increases may be incoming. As result of increasingly thin margins, trade/economic uncertainty, and equipment cost increases, many fleets are opting to pause or stop buying completely in 2025.”
The supply-demand balance was essentially flat in May, at 46.1 (seasonally adjusted), from 46.3 in April, as freight volumes and capacity each ticked down slightly month over month.
“The recent drop in demand, as tariffs went into effect, has resulted in a looser market balance,” Vieth said. “Weaker economic activity and lower imports are likely to continue to impact volumes in May and June. With private fleets ending their expansion, and for-hire carriers under strain, capacity should continue to gradually exit the market. Supply-demand balance is likely to remain at, or below, 50 in the near term, as lower demand related to the impact of tariffs counters the declines in capacity.”
