ACT Research expects tariffs to extend the for-hire freight recession into 2026, following a temporary Q3/25 surge. Much depends on developments in the trade war in the coming months, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“The ‘major questions doctrine’ is a legal argument the Supreme Court used to limit Biden’s authority on student loans and climate, ruling that federal agencies can’t make sweeping changes without clear congressional authorization. It was also cited by the U.S. Court of International Trade when it ruled the IEEPA reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs unlawful in late May. These tariffs continue as the ruling is stayed. We think international trade is a major question, particularly for trucking, driving 16% – 25% of U.S. surface freight volume,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst of ACT Research, said. “With a historic backlog on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket, but no appeal of the stay at this point, it’s not likely to be decided before the court takes a few months off soon. But if the eventual appeal is successful, it could reduce U.S. import tariffs from around 20% currently to a high single digit percentage. At least significantly delaying these tariffs by sending the issue to Congress would improve the outlook for goods demand. By contrast, the Section 232 tariffs on steel & aluminum, currently 50%, are on firmer legal ground, which is affecting equipment supply. Both have significant implications for freight markets.”
