Truckload spot rates spent three to four weeks up double-digit percentages year over year in late December and early January, and weather remains a near-term risk to truckload capacity, according to the latest release of ACT Research’s Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook report.
“Most of the jump in spot rates was due to severe weather, but Class 8 orders also rose in December with improved truckload conditions and a degree of clarity for EPA’27 low-NOx regulations. We expect a small equipment capacity contraction in 2026, but one that will likely continue in 2027,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst of ACT Research said.
“Growth has been led largely by a narrow segment of the economy, but it has room to broaden out if the looming Supreme Court tariff decision brings tariffs down,” he added. “This would lead to additional broad disinflation, providing more leeway for the Fed to further lower rates, spurring freight-sensitive sectors like housing and durable goods. After destocking in Q4/25, we think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand.”
Denoyer concluded, “On the other hand, upholding the tariffs would further extend the recessionary conditions the trucking industry has been contending with for the past four years, by pressing prices up further. The average age of a US Class 8 tractor is now 6.3 years old, the highest in more than a decade, which should help usher in a new phase of the truckload cycle.”
