September’s preliminary net trailer orders increased sequentially, to 31,300 units, against a very easy August comp, and were notably higher compared to last September, up 19%. As the opening month of peak order season, seasonal adjustment (SA) lowers September’s SA tally to 28,700 units. Final September results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate should be within +/-5% of the final order tally.
“Preliminary net orders, at 28,700 seasonally adjusted, were 95% higher sequentially,” Jennifer McNealy, director CV Market Research and Publications at ACT Research, said. “While this certainly is a welcome sign for the industry, and the first time in 2023 that year-over-year comparisons have been positive, one month of robust orders does not guarantee the full year. It’s still too early in the new year order season to call.
“The data continue to provide mixed messages, with cancellations remaining elevated, driven primarily by the van segments, both dry and reefer, even as backlogs remain at healthy, albeit shorter, levels,” McNealy said. “In August, the BL/BU ratio was north of five months in aggregate, with some specialty segments having no available build slots until the beginning of 2025.” She concluded, “We’ve been hearing that order discussions were occurring, and it looks like quotations are beginning to convert to ‘booked’ business.”
When asked about the backlog’s trajectory, McNealy said: “Using preliminary September orders and the corresponding OEM build plans from the September State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report (August data) for guidance, we would expect the trailer backlog to increase by around 4,200 units to about 138,800 units when complete September data are released. As this number is derived from estimated data, note there will be some variability to reported backlogs when final data are collected.”
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
